The October 22 elections marked a decline of the Green party and Liberal Green party, and an advance for the SVP party, compared to 2019. Longer-term trends, however, show a different picture, with an increase in Green parties and a stable share for the SVP over the past twenty years. Furthermore, an analysis by political currents rather than by parties shows a clear shift in the political landscape.
Take a long term view
While comments on the results have focused on changes comapred to 2019, it's important not to limit ourselves to this perspective. The figure below shows the evolution of the different parties' shares of the electorate (left panel) and their seats in the National Council (right panel). The decline of the Greens and the Liberal Greens between 2019 and 2023 (revised figures), and the gains of the SVP, are clear.
However, a longer perspective puts recent changes into perspective. First, the SVP's share has fluctuated around an average since 2003. Secondly, the decline of the Greens and the Green Liberals comes after strong gains in 2019, and the underlying trend for these parties clearly remains upward. Finally, the Green Liberals' decline is more pronounced in terms of seats than electoral result.
Think in terms of political currents
Swiss political discussion is often structured around parties. While this made sense in the past, this perspective is limited when different parties represent a similar current. Of course, each party has its own specificities, and grouping them into streams means erasing certain differences. Nevertheless, the exercise is instructive.
Specifically, we can group the parties into five currents (details are given at the end of the document). The conservative right (SVP and various parties, such as Lega), the left (PS and various parties), the center (PDC / Centre and PBD), the liberal current (PLR) and the green current (Greens and Green Liberals).
This breakdown gives the picture in the graph below, which leads to several observations. First, the rise of the conservative right in the 1990s was less than that of the SVP, as this party picked up votes from other similar formations, notably the Swiss Freedom Party and the Swiss Democrats. Second, the Green current is showing sustained growth, which recent fluctuations do not contradict. Lastly, the Greens' share of the electorate and of the National Council over the last two elections has been similar to that of the liberal current and the center, despite the recent decline.
Of course, the allocation of the various parties between currents is open to discussion. In particular, to consider that the Liberal Greens fall solely within the green bloc is questionable, since their name indicates that they are also part of the liberal current. The figure below presents an alternative that allocates one-third of this party's votes and seats to the liberal current, and two-thirds to the green bloc. This alternative hypothesis shifts the green line downwards and the blue line in the opposite direction, but does not fundamentally change the situation.
It should be noted in passing that our analysis in terms of currents is not subject to profound questioning when SFO figures are corrected, unlike a discussion about who is the 3rd or 4th political party.
And now ?
The political debate on the composition of the Federal Council is currently in full swing. As Switzerland is made up of voters and Cantons, we'll have to wait for the final results for the Council of States on November 12 to establish the representation of parties and currents in the two chambers. To be continued thus.
> Appendix: allocation of parties by currents
Conservative right : UDC, PEV, DS, Rép., UDF, PSL, Lega, MCR.
Left : PS, PST / SolidaritéS, PSA, POCH
Center : PDC / le Centre, PBD, PCS
Lieberal : PLR, Vert Libéraux (depending on scenario)
Green : Vert.e.s, AVF, Vert Libéraux (depending on scenario)
For the detailed names of the party, clic here.
