Quantum Technology: Can it fulfill its promises?

Quantum information technology promises it will revolutionize the world, and the commercial space is heating up fast. But key fundamental breakthroughs will require more time. Some investors are questioning whether certain quantum companies are promising more than they can deliver in the near term.

For 20 years physicists have promised a second quantum revolution. The first revolution came when physicists such as Nils Bohr discovered that atomic-level particles don’t follow the rules of classical physics. Quantum particles can exist in multiple states simultaneously (superposition), and they can become entangled such that they react the same way no matter how far apart.

Scientific knowledge of these and other properties has pushed us to invent lasers, transistors, and GPS. Now, in the second revolution, scientists are manipulating quantum particles to unlock new levels of computing power, measurement sensitivity, and communication security.

A conference hosted by Inside Quantum Technology (IQT) in May in San Diego, California displayed the full commercial promise of the second quantum revolution. The biggest race is in quantum computing, where researchers, startups, and tech giants like IBM and Google are all competing.

Using different technologies, they are competing to build computers with ever more stable quantum bits (qubits). Unlike a classical computing bit, which can only be 0 or 1, a qubit can exist in many states in between 0 and 1, thus unlocking an exponential increase in computing power as more qubits are added.

Cutting-edge quantum computers have recently passed the 100-qubit threshold. But these researchers still have fundamental problems to solve, like error correction, or how to run computers without using cryogenic freezing. Doing so may take a decade or longer.

More immediate commercial solutions are blossoming, however, in quantum sensing and cryptography. Think of miniaturized atomic clocks, atomic-scale microscopes, quantum key cryptographic distribution and true random number generators.

Here Swiss companies are making their mark. ID Quantique, from Geneva, has emerged as a leader in the quantum cryptography space. And Swiss startups like Qnami and QZabre are developing nitrogen-vacancy microscope sensors that deliver new levels of measurement precision.

Despite the commercial promise of quantum at the IQT conference, a cloud hung over the festivities. Just days before, the activist short-selling firm Scorpion Capital released a report accusing IonQ, one of the largest US quantum computing startups, of being a hoax.

The report claimed that IonQ’s marquee product, a 32-qubit computer, was incapable of basic operations, and that company revenues were suspect. IonQ disputed the allegations, but its actual revenues remain marginal. Its stock has plummeted more than 80% from its peak in November.

As investors look to the future, they will have to grapple with the longer-term promise of quantum computing versus the desire for shorter-term profits. “We’re a long way from doing anything practical on the compute side,” said Quantinuum CEO Ilyas Khan at the conference.

Nonetheless, quantum sensing and cryptography remain strong areas for commercialization today. We can still expect quantum to unlock new futures, just not maybe exactly in the ways scientists and startups predict.