US GDP: What the L?

The advance report of first quarter US GDP was stronger than it looked. It declined overall at a 6.1% annual rate, faster than expected. But consumption turned positive and inventories dropped sharply, while weak government spending – which won’t be a problem once stimulus dollars start circulating – depressed growth. Capital investment inevitably plummeted. But the figures suggest the economy may be nearing a bottom. Unfortunately, it may also stay there. The advance estimate is normally subst...