Brutal or kind

The Federal Reserve Board looks almost certain to cut the US overnight interest rate on December 11. Will that decision be kind or brutal? It depends what you care about. The central bank could yet surprise the market, which is assigning a 94% probability to a quarter of a percentage point reduction to 4.25%. The US economy isn’t obviously in bad enough shape to need lower interest rates. But these days, the market, not the economy, calls the Fed’s tune. The central bank is afraid to surprise a...