Boiling in oil

For investors, the Lebanon ceasefire has been taken as unmitigated good news. Stocks are up and the oil price is down. The hope is that the Israel-Hezbollah stalemate will keep away a wider Middle East conflict. That looks like the wrong conclusion. In the short term, peace in Lebanon could well prevail. What’s more, the Lebanese war has probably softened the US response to Iran’s almost certain declaration, due August 31, that it won’t restrict its nuclear development. Before the war, the best...